Overconfidence Ap Psychology
Hindsight bias
the belief that after learning an outcome, one would have foreseen it
Overconfidence
the tendency to be more confident than correct and to overestimate the accuracy of our beliefs and judgements
critical thinking
examines assumptions, discerns hidden values, evaluates evidence, and assesses conclusions
theory
an explanation that organizes observations and predicts behaviors or events
hypothesis
a testable prediction, often implied by a theory
operational definition
a statement used to define research variables
replication
the repetition of research study with different participants in different situations to get other results
case study
an observation technique where one person is studied in depth
survey
a group of questions given to people based on a particular subject to get a range of answers
population
all the cases in a group being studied
random sample
a sample where each person participating has an equal chance of inclusion
naturalistic observation
the observation and recording of behavior in natural situations without manipulation of the situation
correlation
a measure of how two factors may vary together and how well each predicts the other
correlation coefficient
a statistical index of the relationship between two things
scatterplot
a graphed cluster of dots, each represents the value of two variables
illusory correlation
the idea of a relationship where none really exists
experiment
a research method in which an investigator manipulates one or more factors to observe the effect on some behavior or mental process
random assignment
the assignment of participants to experimental and control groups by chance to eliminate bias
double-blind procedure
a procedure in which both the researcher and the participants are unaware about which participants have the treatment or the placebo
placebo effect
experimental results caused by expectations alone
experimental group
the group that is exposed to the treatment
control group
the group that is not exposed to the treatment
independent variable
the experimental factor that is manipulated; the studied variable
confounding variable
a factor other than the independent variable that might produce an effect in an experiment
dependent variable
the outcome factor; the variable that may change in response to manipulations of the independent variable
mode
the most frequently occurring score in data
mean
the average in data
median
the middle score in a distribution
range
the difference between the highest and lowest scores in data
standard deviation
a computed measure of how much scores vary around the mean score
normal curve
a symmetrical, bell-shaped curve that describes the distribution of many types of data
statistical significance
a statistical statement saying how likely it is that a result occurred by chance
culture
behaviors, ideas, attitudes, values and traditions shared by a group of people and transmitted from on generation to the next
informed consent
an ethical principle that research participants are to be told enough to allow them to choose to participate or not
debriefing
the post experimental explanation of a study, including its purpose and any deceptions